Agency Submissions vs. HDB Publications: Which Offers More Real-Time Insights for HDB resale market?

Recently, The Strait Times shared an article on August 11th, titled "HDB resale prices rise at slower pace of 0.3% in July; sales volume bounces back". This article highlighted that “Sales activity bounced back from the seasonal lull in June, with an estimated 2,056 units changing hands in July, up 10.7 per cent from the 1,858 units the month before.”, referencing HDB resale activities monthly between July 2022 and July 2023.

But our data tells a different story.

While most analyses focus on the date when the transaction is published on the HDB website (referred to as "HDB Publications"), at Real Estate Analytics Pte Ltd (REA), we think there's another date to watch: the day an agreement (or "Option to Purchase" or “OTP”) is made between a buyer and seller, which is called "Agency Submissions" or more commonly known as submitted transactions.

We consider Agency Submissions to be the leading indicator of current market conditions thanks to their ability to provide more timely insights as to the outlook of the HDB resale market.

Why do Agency Submissions matter more?

According to our data, for HDB resale transaction, normally there is an average of 40 – 50 days (about 1 and a half months) gap between the date submitted by Agency and the date published by HDB. This gap can mean that by the time the public receives the information, market dynamics might have shifted. As such, for those keen on understanding real-time market trends or making informed property decisions, relying on the later published date from the HDB might not offer the most current perspective on the HDB resale landscape.

Instead, Agency Submissions can be a better indicator of the current market condition to look out for. They provide an immediate snapshot of buyer and seller agreements, effectively capturing real-time sentiments and trends in the housing market.

Some might argue that Agency Submissions are not reliable due to potential fall-out. However, REA’s research has found out that while there are usually 5% of preliminary agreements are not published in the end, a significant 95% actually do (refer to the chart below)! This reinforces the idea that observing the date of these agreements can serve as a reliable indicator of market activity. In essence, by focusing on Agency Submissions, we're granted a more immediate snapshot of the HDB resale market's pulse, rather than waiting for the finalised data to roll out.

HDB Publications – A delayed picture of market conditions

On the other hand, HDB Publication Date presents a delayed picture, often reflecting the market's status from a month prior (as can be seen from the chart below). This time lag can make HDB Publications less responsive to rapidly changing market conditions. Therefore, for those wanting to understand the pulse of the market as it happens, focusing on Agency Submissions can offer a more timely insight.

As evidenced by the information set out in the chart below, the majority of the HDB Publications recorded in the month of July 2023 were submitted in May 2023 with some submissions taking place as early as February 2023.

What can you do to stay on top of this ever-changing market?

So, for property investors/agents/sellers/buyers trying to gain timely and precise insights surrounding demand and pricing expectations of the current HDB resale market, it might be wiser to look at Agency Submissions rather than HDB Publications. This is because Agency Submissions can tell us about the present market conditions, as opposed to HDB Publications, which are deemed as lagging indicators since the process for such transactions were initiated based on conditions and sentiments a few months back.

Understanding the importance of timely insights in today’s dynamic market, REA is proud to be the leading provider of real-time Agency Submissions transactions in Singapore. Our extensive database will bring value to your strategic decision-making process, helping you stay on top of the ever-changing property landscape. Learn more about our solutions here.

To know more about our data-driven real estate solutions, contact us here.